When forecasting went wrong.

In our class discussion, we talked about how businesses rely on forecasting to formulate their strategies. We all know that forecasts are not perfect, they just give us an idea what the sales might be in the future. In most cases, companies would try to take all the outside factors into accounts while forecasting; however, what happens when you totally underestimated the impact of certain events?

It’s been more than three weeks since the Umbrella Revolution started in Hong Kong. The protesters occupied the financial district and some of the main shopping area in this small city. Countless retailers and restaurants have stood up and complained that how much loss they have during the protest.

This protest started just two days before the “Golden Week”, a week long holiday for mainland China to celebrate the National Day. The time when companies stock up and getting ready for the countless mainland shoppers. For small to midsize businesses, the owners complained that they are about to go out of businesses if the protest continues. These small/midsize rely largely on mainlanders and they are holding their inventories longer than they would like and since the Golden Week is now over, they are not optimistic about the inventories will be gone anytime soon.

This movement has been planing for more than one year and everyone in Hong Kong knows exactly when it was going to start. But it turns out most businesses have underestimated the impact of it. My questions are, how should a business forecast its sales under such events? What would you do about the forecasting for NEXT year?

Sources:

 

Hong Kong Retailers Experience Sharp Sales Declines Amid Protests

Goldman Slashes Hong Kong Growth Outlook

5 for Forecasting: How Nick Leddy Lost his Roster Spot

The Chicago Blackhawks and Chicago Bulls faced very different situations this summer.

The Bulls decorated the United Center in hopes of landing free agent Carmelo Anthony
The Bulls decorated the United Center in hopes of landing free agent Carmelo Anthony

The Bulls created an elaborate presentation at the United Center as they tried to lure Carmelo Anthony away from the New York Knicks while the Chicago Blackhawks offered some of their best players to other teams. The core reason for these differences was the accuracy of salary cap forecasting within the specific leagues.

The NHL fell victim to bad forecasting in 2014. Early in the year, the commissioner predicted a $71.1 million salary cap for the upcoming season. General Managers across the league began to plan their roster moves accordingly. It wasn’t until months later, when the actual figures came in, that the league realized it had overestimated the growth of the revenues; the hard salary cap would instead only be $68 million. The $3.1 million difference didn’t affect teams that conservatively reacted to the forecast, but teams like the Blackhawks found themselves needing to eliminate nearly $3 million worth of payroll. So as the team practiced all summer, the atmosphere was not one of anticipation and excitement but rather apprehension, knowing a significant player would need to be traded.   Ultimately, Nick Leddy lost his spot on a championship team because the league falsely predicted the growth of their revenues.

Both Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy lost their roster spots on championship teams because of poor forecasting.
Both Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy lost their roster spots on championship teams because of poor forecasting.

In contrast, the NBA did not suffer from bad forecasting. They were not perfectly accurate, as is expected, but they conservatively expected a 4.5% increase. By not relaying an unrealistic expectation to the general managers, the league prevented premature dealings by teams. Plus, on three separate occasions throughout the year, the league adjusted their forecast to improve its accuracy. The eventual salary cap was a 7.7% increase from the previous year. This left the Chicago Bulls with extra, unexpected cap space to try to recruit top free agents—a much preferable problem than having to shed payroll.

General Managers have to find the balance between optimistic forecasts and reality. The NHL should’ve considered the effect of the lockout shortened season as well as the decline of the Canadian dollar when they predicted a forecast that followed the record growth trend from previous years.  The NBA did a much better job of using environmental signs such as market values of sold teams to predict their league growth.  In the years to come, I’d expect NHL managers to be more hesitant in relying on initial forecasts, and perhaps adopt NBA strategies in approaching salary cap forecasts.

CapGeek.com shows the relationship between each NHL team and the salary cap. This specific image shows how restrictive the 2014 salary cap is for certain teams.
CapGeek.com shows the relationship between each NHL team and the salary cap. This specific image shows how restrictive the 2014 salary cap is for certain teams.

The salary cap in certain leagues is an absolute maximum accompanied by severe penalties for violations. It makes it even more consequential when a forecast is overestimated. Some teams will wait until the cap is released to sign players while other teams sign players based on forecasts. It poses the question: Which is the preferred scenario? New York Jets fans are currently complaining because their team lacks talent despite having nearly $20 million in cap space to be spent while Blackhawks fans were upset with having to trade Leddy in order to be under the cap. Which scenario would you prefer your favorite team be in? Do you rely on the forecast and deal with the consequences of inaccuracy or wait until the actual cap is set to make important decisions and risk missing out on top talent?

Sources:

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2014/3/6/5478362/what-the-new-projection-of-a-68-million-dollar-salary-cap-shows-about

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10808291/nba-salary-cap-projected-rise-nearly-5-million

Images: Capgeek.com

https://blog-blogmediainc.netdna-ssl.com/upload/SportsBlogcom/45330/0840882001412450673_filepicker.jpg

http://www.trbimg.com/img-53b49beb/turbine/ct-bulls-blackhawks-court-stars-haugh-spt-0703-001/2048/2048×1365

 

Why Should the NFL Change?

Fan or no fan, most people are aware of the recent PR nightmare for the National Football League which began when a video surfaced showing Baltimore Raven Ray Rice knocking his then fiancée, now wife, unconscious. Following the Rice video, Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings was arrested on child abuse charges, and multiple other NFL players were linked to domestic-violence incidents. With all these serious allegations you might think that the NFL would face some backlash, however TV ratings for the 2014 season have surpassed those of last year. Why?

Football is the undisputed number one sport in America. In July of 2013 Sports Media Watch released a list of the 50 most-watched sporting events between January 1 and July 16 and of the top 10 most-watched events, the NFL had 10. That’s right, the most-watched sporting events of the first half of 2013 were NFL playoff games and number 11 on the list was the NCAA BCS Championship game between Alabama and Notre Dame. The 2013 Pro-Bowl Game, which is widely regarded as a joke, had higher ratings than any Major League Baseball game or National Hockey League game. Football, especially the NFL, has a strong hold on America’s televisions. In fact, it was the television that grew football. As televisions became common in households, networks looked for programming to fill the Sunday void. The scheduling of games fit the timeslots and the flow of the game was conducive to black and white televisions. In addition, the stoppage of play created the perfect, natural point to break for commercials. Now broadcasting deals generate around $5 billion for the NFL.

The NFL has taken advantage of technologies with Madden, a $4 billion franchise that set the bar for sports video games. Madden is key for the NFL, which is trying to grow an international fan base. Although it may take time, the virtual world is connecting people more than ever before and the NFL is in position to capitalize on it.

However, despite its broadcasting and gaming success, football could be facing new problems in the upcoming years. The recent flurry of domestic-violence incidents, criticisms of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, and a lawsuit filed by NFL cheerleaders have put the spotlight on female football fans. Women make up about 45% of the NFL’s American fan base and are the NFL’s fastest growing demographic, but the recent problems could be hindering growth.  There is also a decline in youth football participation, which could be linked to another lawsuit filed against the NFL, this time by thousands of former NFL players for concussion-related claims.

 

Questions:

  • Do you think the NFL’s actions regarding the Ray Rice incident will harm them in the future?
  • Does the NFL have any incentive to change its policies?
  • Do you think the NFL will continue to have positive growth into the future?
  • Is there a viable global market for the NFL?

I think the NFL’s actions/reactions to Ray Rice will be a blemish on their record, but I don’t believe any long-term damage will come of it. As a female sports fan I would love to see more inclusive advertising or even acknowledgment that female football fans exist, but I don’t have any realistic expectations for the NFL to change its outlook. The only way I can see them changing is if over half of the 45% leave the game all together, but as a sports fan I can’t see myself dropping everything and cutting it out. I am sure that the NFL will continue to grow as it discovers new avenues to expand the game and I will be interested to see if the National Football League catches on worldwide.

 

Link to the original New York Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/12/magazine/whats-the-nfls-incentive-to-change.html?ref=business&_r=1

 

 

 

 

FORD is really “Shifting into Gear!”

Recently, Ford Motor Company has a announced they are putting a greater focus on their SUV and crossover cars to prepare for the future. You might ask, why? Well according to forecasts by IHS Automotive, one in five cars sold around the world annually in 2018 will be either a SUV or crossover. There is about 14 million vehicles sold world wide annually and a specific model taking up 20% of an entire market is a very large number.

Now after reading this article, I almost felt like I was ready the weekly courier, and analyzing the market conditions report from our simulation. Its really remarkable how this article pertains to the methods and leanings of the game we played in class.

ford

Ford’s SUV and crossover sales were up 37%, which also outpaced the industry increase of 17%. This is exactly what we tracked in the statistics segment of the segment analysis. Ford is clearly putting a focus on a specific segment of the market, or in our game “product type.” The amount of models of SUVs and crossovers has risen from 180 to 370 from 2000 to the current day. This market is becoming very competitive and in the simulation we would have to go into R&D and tweak our product to become better and have an edge. We would also encounter situations where we would have to buy more capacity in our plant to account for higher demand. Ford is doing exactly this. The article states, “…Where it is spending $700 million to expand.” Ford has announced it will continue producing their crossover product, The “Edge”, and expand its production capacity by spending $700 million dollars in Oakville, Ontario where the car is produced. Ford ships this model to over 60 countries, which obviously can be concluded the demand is very high. This scenario right here is exactly like the decisions we had to make within the simulation, adjusting capacity to meet demand and forecasts, along with the segment demand fluctuations.

Just to show exactly how intense this increase in market demand for these SUV’s and midsized crossover is, utility cars sales grew 10% and crossover sales grew 16% last year totaling about 2.2 million units…but that’s just in North America! In 2000 1.8 million units of utility vehicles were sold outside North America, today that number is now 10 million!

Obviously the future of the automotive industry is leaning in a specific direction. I think it is very interesting to see how Ford Motor Company is planning all of this now, and how closely this scenario relates to our simulation. How do you think this market preference for SUV’s and crossovers will affect the industry as a whole? Do you think this will create entry points for new automotive companies? What do you think will happen to all the inventory of the less preferred sedan and cope model type of cars?

Article Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/02/16/ford-world-suv-shift-from-cars/5497343/

-Evan Meador

Reflection: A Look at Strategy

            Before starting this class, I was already aware that forecasting was important. However, I didn’t realize the extent to which it was important. Forecasts drive so many decisions that are made within a company. It is hard to know if you are being too conservative or too ambitious because you never can predict the market. Once you get the forecast, all of the other departments work together to make sure that the numbers are realistic and can make a profit in the end.

           I also saw that you can start with one strategy in mind and then you can just end up going in a different direction later on. I was assuming that companies had to stick to the strategy that they intended to start with but that isn’t true. Change is inevitable and you just have to learn to grow with the changing markets.

          Amazon is a company that has maintained its strategy for many years. They aim to make their customers as happy as possible and they have done a good job with that. They didn’t follow the Silicon Valley theory where you focus less on revenue and try to establish a product or service. Amazon doesn’t focus on profits, their profit margins aren’t that great but they still have people willing to invest in them. Amazon isn’t worrying about revenues, they are trying to gain more memberships without changing the price to match inflation. Money just doesn’t seem to be a problem for Amazon. They created Amazon Fresh and it just needs to make enough to finance its self. There strategy is proving to work very well for them because they keep adding more services to their business that they really don’t need to finance very heavy. They are able to charge fairly cheap prices for their Kindles because customers will purchase games and applications from the Amazon Kindle store. Their goal is to have their products widely spread across a large number of the population. So far, they have done an amazing job with that.

                  amazon                                                       

       My team’s strategy was to be a differentiator and lead in the high end and low end. As the simulation progressed, we saw that some of our products in those segments just did not do well. They were positioned in the worst spots in some rounds, some stocked out multiple times, and our awareness of the products fluctuated constantly. It was a true learning experience nonetheless. One thing I learned from this course is that you really have to analyze your competitors very closely and constantly do SWOT analysis to keep your company up to date. I also learned that ethics isn’t always a issue of what is good and bad, it can be about what’s in the best interest of the company. Doing nothing is also an option that can be chosen but it will also have implications in some way.

 

Link:

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2014/01/amazon_earnings_how_jeff_bezos_gets_investors_to_believe_in_him.html

 

My Zynga! How does one fall so fast?

Words With Friends. FarmVille. Scramble With Friends. We’ve all heard or played these games, or we have watched our friends on Facebook or Twitter interact with these games. These games are created by Zynga, a company that is nearly six years old based in San Francisco, California. This past week Zynga’s CEO Mark Pincus announced an 18% job cut for employees throughout the gaming company.

Who or what could possibly be the cause of such an 18% job cut? Pincus, in his blog announcement, acknowledged the fact that Zynga has struggled with adapting and entering the mobile space like many other companies. Larger companies, such as Facebook, have also admittedly publicly to have struggled to get a firm grasp on the market that caters to smaller devices that have smaller screens where users expect a fast, seamless and intuitive experience – with less ads. Is this lack of leadership on Pincus’? Or could it be Zynga’s lack of innovation?

This move to lean the company is certainly one thing – focusing on the future. By decreasing the size of the company today, Zynga was able to fairly compensate the newly departed associates. By making this move now, Pincus believes that Zynga is saving money in the long run. He believes making the deep cuts now will allow Zynga to take the risks it was once able to take before it expanded.

There are many similarities in this recent move by Zynga, and the the past few recent years of Chicago based, Groupon. These small start-up online companies expand exponentially all too quickly which brings up the questions, is it lack of leadership? One difference between Zynga and Groupon is that Pincus acknowledging the issues, and addressing them head on from the get go where as it can be argued that Groupon’s first CEO (yet to be replaced), Andrew Mason, failed to take the initiative to help his company early on. Mason, after months of criticism, left by similar fashion – a blog letter written to employees riddled with his off-based humor.

Companies that scale too quickly can easily lose their focus and their identity. Pincus is taking a risk to help his company in the long run. It is a difficult decision to make, but could potentially be the right one to correct Zynga’s projection path. Do think Pincus is making the right move?

http://blog.zynga.com/2013/06/03/ceo-update-4/

Find a Beauty Expert at Your Local Target!

Generic beauty-products2Target is one of our go-to stores when we are in need of practically anything you can think of-a hair brush, a summer dress, groceries, a plasma tv, makeup, face cleansers and much more. Recently, an article in the Chicago Tribune reported that Target would soon be expanding its “beauty concierge” within the Chicago area. The company’s goal is to expand this program from 28 to 44 stores. The uniqueness of this program is that associates are dressed in black aprons equipped with iPads, as well as mirrors and product samples to provide shoppers with guidance and expertise when they are browsing through the aisles of the beauty section looking for beauty products. According to this article, Chicago was selected as the test market for this program due to its shopping population. Specific locations Target is hoping to expand this program include Cicero, Vernon Hills and West Schaumburg while shutting the program in other locations such as Palatine, Bedford Park, Joliet, Villa Park, Oswego, Plainfield, North Aurora and Romeoville. Further, Target is also expected to expand its program into three additional markets: Los Angeles/Orange County, Minneapolis and Washington, D.C

The implementation of Target’s Beauty Concierge program is part of a trend in the beauty industry in which department stores and specialty retailers are helping and giving customers the opportunity to try their products before buying them. Since the skin care market grew 10 percent in 2012, Target is anticipating this program to boost sales. This new personalized beauty service is allowing Target not only to compete with stores such as Walgreens, who offers most of these products, but also to beauty retailers such as Sephora and Ulta Beauty. Hana Ben-Shabat, a partner at a global management consulting group commented on Target’s strategy by saying that at the end of the day fashion is a product and department stores are competing with beauty retailers and vice versa.

Operation managers at Target are certainly trying to keep up with the industry by coming up with these unique strategies. I think that the implementation of this new service can be a great success in very populated Target stores across the city, for example in downtown Chicago.  As this program matures, I think Target will gain a competitive advantage over other popular department stores such as Wal-Mart, Walgreens and CVS. The success of this program will largely be dependent on the type of associates that are being hired and the level of training they receive. Customers nowadays are always looking for advice when they are shopping for products, especially make up because not everyone is a beauty expert. Having someone to help you choose which specific foundation matches your skin, which mascara would help your lashes stand out, or which lipstick would look nice with an outfit, is certainly a service customers will appreciate. In my perspective, operation managers should place great emphasis on the increase of sales from beauty products to ensure that this project is being managed efficiently and can perhaps be used as a basis to provide a reasonable forecast to other Target stores across the nation.

What is your opinion? Do you think this program would attract more customers?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-target-beauty-concierge-program-20130524,0,7813736.story

Hog-wild for Factory Farming: Hot Dogs Made in China

As the Chinese population and economy continue to grow, safer and more efficient industrialization practices are necessary to keep up with the demands of a hot dog hungry China. This is not an exaggeration as China is “the world’s largest consumer of pork.” A recent takeover of Smithfield Foods by Shuanghui Holdings Ltd., “China’s biggest meat processor,” will provide valuable insight into industry practices that are commonplace in the U.S. Current processing methods in China lack quality control as the majority of meat is produced by small farms that process less than 500 hogs per year.

From Hog to HotdogThese “conditions on smaller farms can be squalid, with a lot of physical contact between farmers and animals, which can transmit disease.” This type of environment can become a breeding ground for contamination leading to outbreaks of diseases like swine flu and foot-and-mouth disease, having major health implications on Chinese consumers. Authorities blame irresponsible farming practices and the disjointed meat processing system that is not easy to “regulate and makes it more difficult to avoid bad practices.”

In contrast, the highly sophisticated and streamlined systems of pork production in the U.S. is often viewed negatively by Americans and referred to as “factory farming.” Smithfield’s facilities have the “capacity to slaughter as many as 110,000 hogs a day,” and most U.S. farms are much larger than their Chinese counterparts, raising over 2,000 hogs annually. Ironically, these modern processing techniques are the envy of Chinese authorities who are looking to utilize the “expertise of Smithfield’s management team to enhance its pork-processing facilities.” Skeptics claim that the Shuanghi-Smithfield partnership “will exacerbate such problems as complex supply chains and food-contamination risks.”

Although the trend in U.S. agriculture is to go “back to the start” as expressed in marketing campaigns by environmentally conscious companies like Chipotle Mexican Grill, this is not the reality in China. As health out-breaks are more widespread in this Asian country and regulation lacking, efforts to “control food safety” and create more modernized processing methods are a welcomed site.

In such an industry, operational expertise will prove essential in restructuring the pork processing system in China. They will likely face challenges like determining adequate process and capacity design for farming facilities and distribution channels; forecasting to meet the demands of a growing population; Slaughter Pigs in Chinaand improving inefficient and broken supply chains. Improved product quality will likely be most prominent and follow a manufacturing-based definition as increased standards will ensure a safer finished product.

On a personal note, I am an advocate for more naturally produced food in smaller farming environments, yet I understand that the demands and current conditions in China are quite different from the U.S. All criticism aside, the majority of the U.S. population relies on the safe meat supply provided by corporations like Smithfield to ensure peace-of-mind at the dinner table. How do you think that the new deal between Shuanghi and Smithfield will impact Chinese and U.S. consumers, respectively. Will the Chinese citizens have a similar sentiment toward industrialized farming practices in future decades?

Article Source

 

 

Domestic Flight Leaders Only

The airline carrier line of business has been a very popular topic in the last few years.  Many changes have taken place such as bigger and better planes, new competitors, mergers, and some not so good news.  The U.S. carriers have been dropping in their ranking internationally over the last several years.  Asian and Middle Eastern competitors have been dominating the international market.  However, it was recently noted that the U.S. seems to be switching its gears and is taking a position to head into the international game stronger than it ever has.  The bigger U.S. carriers have closed their mergers and have adjusted their managerial approach and are on the rise again.

While all of these mergers were going on with the U.S. carriers, Asia and the Middle-East took advantage of the time to take over the international air traffic.  Both Asian and Middle-Eastern airlines dominated the international markets while all of this was going on in the U.S.  Also because of all of the mergers that the U.S. carriers have been going through, it has been noted that they have fallen a bit behind on the aircrafts they are using although this may be changing quickly with Boeings new product.

The chart below shows the ranking of airlines done by the World Airline Awards.  The first U.S. airline in the ranking was Virgin America ranked 26th.

2012

 

2011

2012

 

2011

1

Qatar Airways

1

11

Garuda Indonesia

19

2

Asiana Airlines

3

12

Virgin Australia

32

3

Singapore Airlines

2

13

EVA Air

16

4

Cathay Pacific Airways

4

14

Lufthansa

15

5

ANA All Nippon Airways

11

15

Qantas Airways

8

6

Etihad Airways

6

16

Korean Air

24

7

Turkish Airlines

9

17

Air New Zealand

7

8

Emirates

10

18

Swiss Int’l Air Lines

13

9

Thai Airways International

5

19

Air Canada

21

10

Malaysia Airlines

12

20

Hainan Airlines

23

The issue now is for the U.S. to enter the international market and make its presence known.  Latin America and Africa both had an increase in demand for air traffic but the U.S. missed the opportunity to enter the market during that team.  It seems that with all of the upgrades to the U.S. carriers, they should be able to hit the international market much more effectively the next time an opportunity like that arises.  It would be interesting to see how the U.S. carriers choose to enter the international market considering the different routes they can take to do it.  One of their many options is to rush into the situation to try and make an impact as soon as possible.  The concern with this is that they may try to cut corners to enter the market quicker.  This type of strategy usually comes at the cost of the customer.  Another option they have is to upgrade their fleets and then enter the market.  The downfall with this is time.  While they are upgrading their fleets, other international carriers may be upgrading their own fleets and pulling farther ahead which would make it more difficult for the U.S. to enter later.  They would also have to take into consideration the opportunity cost of taking an even longer time than they already have been.

If you were a U.S. carrier, what strategy would you use to enter the international market?  This does not have to be one of the methods listed above and can be your own idea.

Would you even consider waiting any longer to enter the market considering the state of carriers currently?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-02/u-s-carriers-ready-to-go-on-attack-after-mergers-iata-predicts.html

http://www.worldairlineawards.com/Awards_2012/Airline2012_top40.htm

It’s Amazing What Soup Can Do!

 

CAMPBELLCampbell’s Soup Co. is the leading maker and marketer of soup. But for two straight years, the soup business was struggling, alerting the stakeholders about the possibility of its fate to collapse. However, this past year, Campbell has featured its new skillet sauces line in hopes that it can expand out the dinner segment in 2014.  Denise Morrison, the president and chief executive officer explained that even though it is difficult to create new market segments, she is confident that Campbell’s Skillet Sauces is a “break-through” concept that has a “high potential for reward.” As a result, Campbell Soup Co. has seen the U.S soup business stabilize after the sales dramatically increased by 14%.

Campbell is currently collaborating with its customer base to create an entirely new category of “unique, convenient and versatile” dinner sauces, while experimenting with existing soups to improve taste. This would be an example of product design. Furthermore, Campbell took the process a step further and came up with an innovated product featuring soup in pouches that attract younger and more affluent consumers. Campbell’s competitive advantage over its competitors is its brand name which consumers keep coming back for more. The soup giant has built its brand name upon its Simple Meals platform featuring the popular Go Soup. In addition to the new dinner sauces, Campbell has announced it would be launching the Campbell’s Slow Cooker Sauces.

Despite its recent success, Campbell faced a problem with the product’s location placement and shelving; but the company said it has found the best way to shelve. However, Campbell continues to struggle in two categories which are U.S. beverages and North America Food service.  The self stable juice category sales have been declining due to overwhelming competition against Campbell’s V8 V-Fusion line and decreasing demand from restaurants. Ms. Morrison proposed a solution to this dilemma, by planning to apply the exact business model for its soup business to its beverage business. The plan consists of improving the taste of its existing vegetable juice while adding new products such as V8 energy drinks to attract a more diverse consumer base.

Most importantly, Campbell’s optimistic future is emphasized on management’s attention to the basics and expansion in faster-growing segments. For example, the V8 is considered a strong brand with high benefits such as promoting health, so Campbell’s management team is figuring out ways to improve its product. Campbell has invested in a new manufacturing line to increase the capacity of creating fresh soup to tackle the issue of structural changes in the food service sector. Campbell’s simple business strategy which is to keep costs low while improving its quality has proven to be successful in achieving its short term goals as well as laying a foundation for its long term goals.

If you have ever bought a Campbell product or is an avid consumer of Campbell, what made you choose their products?

Do you think that Campbell’s expansion of new products will maintain or increase its sales and revenue?

Sources:

http://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/news_home/Business_News/2013/05/Campbell_to_build_out_dinner_s.aspx?ID={E6E89D05-6287-40A8-9DD9-22D9C80168FF}

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324102604578494890895484784.html