Every business has to forecast upcoming trends in order to keep a proper supply for their demand. Whether for hiring and firing purposes, deciding what to produce, or deciding what sales will be, every company needs to use forecasting in order to maintain success.
In class, we talked about the differences between qualitative and quantitative forecasting. Quantitative, though difficult in the various computation methods, seemed straight forward. Qualitative, on the other hand, seemed very difficult since what is correct cannot be defined.
This made me think about the fashion industry. Everything in this industry seems to be opinion based. I mean, there are some trends that really make you wonder who thought about them and who would WANT to spend all that money to wear them. But there are people who buy these trends and proudly wear them!
Before certain trends even come out, some companies perform a trend forecast. A good example of a company that does this is www.trendstop.com. They forecast everything from what colors will be popular in the upcoming seasons to what materials will be most prevalent for sales. But how do they know this? Do they just have a box of colored swatches in various materials and shades, close their eyes, and pull something out? Although this really seems like this could be a possibility, they actually have a method for this type of quantitative forecasting madness.
Companies such as trendstop.com have people who actually study trends globally. They look at what people on the streets are wearing, what has been reoccurring on the runways, what has been selling more in stores, and what has been spotted on key media figures. Fashion always repeats itself, and trend spotters look for this as well since patterns in repetition may be found.
These trend spotters are very important in not only the fashion industry, but in the daily operations of department stores as well. Without knowing what the trend will be for the next few seasons, how can they figure out what to buy in order to target the most buyers? As silly as trend forecasting may seem, I’ve realized that it’s just another form of forecasting that is essential for businesses in the fashion industry to thrive.
I really enjoyed your post about fashion forecasting. Fashion has to be one of the most unique industries to forecast because of the huge market they have to look at. While spotting trends on runways may be the easiest way to collect data, no one knows for sure if they will translate to the consumers. In addition to the trends, buyers have to keep in mind the location of their stores, income levels, the demands of their target market.
Perfect title Jen, fashion is definitely something that some companies have been able to cross every t and dot every i.
For the most part if companies like Calvin Cline, D&G, Prada, Hugo Boss, Gucci, or Louis Vuitton put their name on it people will buy it just to have it. These would be all the iSheep out there. These are what I would call the trend setters in the fashion industry, now do they use data to tell them what color, style, or if they need to attach a bunch of metal spikes to it? Yes I would have to agree with you there market research is a huge part of the fashion world.
I would also like to think at the same time that there are designers out there setting these trends for companies like the ones listed above to either buy the design or tweak it and make their own version. Do you think that this is the case?
I completely agree with you. It seems that big name designers like these can put their name or logo on virtually anything, charge a luxury price, and sell whatever it is like hotcakes. As you mentioned, there are definitely designers who set trends for these companies and let them tweak whatever it is they’d like to change. Luxury brands may often hire designers such as these as well in order to design strictly for their brand.
I realize high-end designers seem to be able to charge an irrational price for their products, and continue to make sales. Although to bring the conversation back to operations management, how might these companies operations justify these exaggerated prices? (Other than brand recognition and other values-added from marketing)
In class we discussed how Rainforest Café’s ‘ambiance’ allowed them to charge more than a QSR for a comparable meal. Similarly, these designers often offer a ‘shopping experience.’ Honestly, I couldn’t care less about my ‘shopping experience,’ but to others this definitely creates value to their products. Furthermore, how might their quality control, customer service, and supply chain management effect their pricing?
I feel that designer prices are justified because of their high quality. Not only is there brand recognition when you pay these high prices, but you’re purchasing something that is different from the others; something that stands out from the crowd. When shopping, I always stick to certain brands because I know that I will always be paying for unparalleled and more importantly, consistent quality. This quality is part of the reason that designers have their names.
Their prices are high since the cost of quality control (to provide consistency) is high, which is the reason they are able to offer well-made products. The quality of the supplies that they use is much better, which is yet another reason they can justify their high prices. When going into one of their stores or simply speaking to someone on the phone, they always offer excellent customer service. This customer service is in part because they pay their employees well, meaning they spend much more in order to be able to offer everything that they can.
Forecasting fashion trends may be one of the most sought after forecasts available! Not only does it impact many markets, but trend followers – who are known to be quite impressionable – are likely to re-vamp their fashion with the changing seasons, making them an excellent target market.
I will admit, I fit into that target market in some regards and am often trying to figure out what new fashion trends to buy into. I can now look at it from a different perspective – one where I understand that these forecasting may change and that the market is being driven by other factors than just what looks good.
Love the title! This definitely caught my eye. I find it so interesting that this does relate to all types of forecasting. People usually will forecast by using past data, which is very similar to the fashion industry when they repeat styles. I agree that without being able to know the future trend, I would not know what needed to be bought for the next season; unless maybe we were able to travel to Paris. I have heard they are one year ahead in the fashion world!
It’s interesting how these trends catch on like wildfire because I specifically think of UGGS as a prime example in the US. Personally, when UGGS first came about, I didn’t really know the brand and I wasn’t the only one. Then all the sudden, UGGS became all the rage overnight and I started seeing them everywhere on everyone. I’m sure the company used a method of forecasting to bring the popularity from Australia to the States (and anywhere else) to predict this ongoing trend.
This title was really catchy and I was really entertained. I have often wondered the same things about how people predict the fashion trends. I would have never thought about this example for the class but it really is a perfect example and made a ton of sense. It is definitely true that fashion repeats itself and probably has a lot to do with the forecasting. Just as in operations management, a cycle is used and often repeated if it is deemed successful. After a fashion trend starts to go on the decline, a number of years later the same trend starts back up again but is just modified.