We recently discussed forecasting in class, and it made me realize how important this step is in operating a successful business.  I think it was a great way for me to understand the “behind the scenes” operation of a business, and what they usually do to achieve those goals.  I personally thought companies just forecasted their sales goals simply by percentage, which may be the case for most business but not all.  If for example a company did 100 sales in a given period, they would want to increase those sales by a certain percentage.  I never realized that they used a moving average, a weighted moving average, or even a trend projection.  It seems like all of these things are potentially a good way to project sales, but which one should a company use?  Should companies use different forecasting methods based on their industry, or would they use all methods to get an idea of their sales goals?  What if they’re not in the sales industry?

I currently work for a worldwide bank in a department that doesn’t produce any revenue, but we still set goals for ourselves.  Instead of forecasting sales goals, what we try to do is forecast future spending.  We are looking to continually decrease our spending, and trying to determine why our spending is so high.  What we found is that the quality of the products we had purchased was very low, and in turn causing us to frequently replace those products or requires much maintenance.  With the approval of management, we decided to purchase quality products that will work well with our systems, and which will not require frequent maintenance.  We found that spending the extra money on these quality products will decrease our maintenance budget by a significant amount and will save money in the long-run.  Although our spending was higher in the last few quarters with the purchase of quality products, we are hopeful to see results that would prove our speculations to be true.  If all goes well and these products are as good as they make them sound, we should start seeing our spending reduced by at least 12% each quarter.  I think Senior Management will be glad to see that we were able to come up with an action plan to significantly reduce our spending, while maintaining the same quality service that people expect (if not more).

Do you think there’s other ways to forecast goals?  What ways?  Can you think of any type of company or industry that will not be able to forecast their goals?

I recently read an article on CNN about an Oncologist who has been treating a patient using radiation for a mass in their mouth. It turns out that doctor has been shooting the radiation on the wrong side of the mouth, and ended up doing so about 29 times! How does a person, especially a doctor whom you trust for your personal well-being, make this type of mistake?

This article reminded me of the topics we discussed in class regarding Project Management. Although this isn’t really a “project”, the doctor could have still used some characteristics that were discussed in class, such as planning, organizing, and controlling. Although the doctor had a specific goal in mind (to remove the mass from the patient’s mouth), he clearly didn’t have any type of organization or appropriate action plan to remove it. Did the doctor have any type of deadline? Did the doctor have a projected timeline, or even an idea on when he will see progress on the removal of this mass? I’m no expert in the medical field or radiation therapy, but I personally think the doctor didn’t have any specific timeline, especially since he shot radiation into the patient’s mouth 29 times without seeing any results, and then realizing he wasn’t doing something right.

Plan of action for the doctor: take a Management class! The doctor clearly needs to learn some management techniques. As stated in class, a “project works best when work can be defined with a specific goal and deadline and the work contains complex tasks requiring specialized skills.” Obviously the doctor has the specialized skills required to perform this type of therapy, but the doctor also needs to focus on the following activities:

• Planning – The doctor clearly had a goal/objective in mind, but this stage requires more than just that. It also requires having a clear work break-down schedule and organization. Did the doctor have an idea of how many sessions it would take before noticing results or for the mass to be completely removed? If the doctor would have carefully planned this through, then he would know exactly where to shoot the radiation, and how soon he would be able to see the results.
• Controlling – This task involves monitoring resources, cost, etc. and revising plans to meet time and cost demands. The doctor should have clearly monitored the costs associated with conducting this type of therapy, especially since it affects the customer and/or the health insurance company. This task also involved revising the plan if needed. When the doctor didn’t see any results the first 10 times, did it reward additional concern, or maybe a new plan of action? Did he consider getting expert advice from a colleague in an effort to gain additional resources?

What do you think? Do you think the doctor knew exactly what he was doing? Do you think the doctor can use the aforementioned activities and apply them to his treatment schedules?