Where I work, I am responsible for analyzing how the documents we create are doing. We post them on our website and I conduct quarterly analyses, sometimes I am happy with the results, but sometimes I am not. I take the analysis and predict how to target market will react to the potential introduction of a new document. If the numbers are looking hopeful, I then provide a “green card” to that type of document to go forward on spending our resources on such documents. With that said, these analyses are not always stable. They can be seasonal; can depend on the economy, and/or what our clients are concerned about that quarter. Being able to forecast the public reaction toward a given document is crucial to our business, so we do not waste time on a project that might not do great when published.
When I was reading an article in Businessweek titled, Hewlett-Packard’s Shares Plunge After Forecast Misses Estimates, I thought of our class and what I do. HP experienced a major plummet in their stock prices because of a shortfall on demand for their services. This happens to every company eventually, but it was a little out of nowhere because analysts’ predicted otherwise. If only they knew how good their tracking signal was, maybe this would have been avoidable.
When should a company know better than trusting numbers? I believe a company should hope for the best, but always be prepared for the worst.
The article has been provided for your reference.