A lot of what we have been talking about in class is different methods of forecasting. We have talked about forecasting using trend projections, moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing, just to name a few. What if these common forecasting methods didn’t work for a business? What could the business rely on to make predictions for the future? This is one of the main challenges that face the new CEO of Research and Motion (RIM). Thorsten Heins was recently named the new CEO of RIM after two longtime co-CEOs step down from their management role. RIM long ago was best known for pioneering the smartphone industry with its Blackberry device. Then along came Apple, who changed the idea of a smartphone from a corporate device to a consumer friendly device. The biggest problem RIM has faced in the past was not being able to keep pace with the likes of Apple and Google’s Android operating system, which have continued to evolve and capture a majority of the market share away from RIM. One of Thorsten Heins first tasks will be to get RIM out of the whole that it’s in. To do that he will have to make some important decisions to regain investor confidence and to reshape RIM.
“One thing’s for sure: it would be unwise to rely on tried-and-true approaches that don’t fit the times. Trend lines, market sizing, and competitive benchmarks that served companies well during periods of gradual market evolution do little good in industries where new technologies create seismic shifts, demand is uncertain, and rivals emerge from left field” (Wunker, HBR).
How can RIM (and other companies in the same boat) chart effective strategy in uncertainty?
This article was obtained from Bloomberg Businessweek that was originally posted on Harvard Business Review on January 23, 2012.
http://www.businessweek.com/management/when-annoying-your-customers-is-best-practice-01242012.html
I think that RIM can’t really chart out a strategy. I believe they need revamp their entire product (Blackberry). This comes from personal experience. I loved all my Crackberry’s. I would be on it all the time, When I lost or broke one I replaced it instantly. However, When the iPhone 4 came out, I decided to make the switch to the next and greatest iPhone. It was user friendly and easy to do just about anything on. I recently saw my dad’s new Blackberry and they have made strides in making a come back. They now have a larger screen, and the phone has a touch screen as well as the key pad still. So you can very easily interchange how you interact with the phone. Which is great for the older generations who learned on a Blackberry for work purposes and now need to make the conversion to a touch phone (like my father) So I think Blackberry is on the way to a slow recovery.
I think this is a very good question. If RIM can really come out with a product that can compete with the iPhone and the android network then they might be able to rebound out of the whole they are in. However it will take a lot more then just coming out with new upgraded products. I think in order for RIM to be successful then Apple will need to go on the decline which I don’t think will be happening anytime soon. I think with RIM’s reputation that they probably won’t be able to make a full return to the market.
This post is similar to the preceding post in essence. I do see the dilemma that any executives may face while incorporating forcasting methods into their strategizing process. A good strategizing process often involves quantitive and qualitative components. Forcasting contributes to the quantitive component of a strategizing process. Where the issues in that process usually originate for decision makers is in the qualitative component. In my opinion, numbers alone cannot produce an effective strategy, if those numbers are not properly analyzed. Therefore, it is my belief that forcasting should be thought of as a tool for or portion of the strategizing process and not the sole component of the entire process.