Japan’s Car market conundrum

In class, we discussed the idea that productivity is a measurement derived from how much outputs are produced over how many inputs are put into the production. Knowing how important production is, I decided to compare the math with the practice of making cars.

An article in the Economist discusses how large Japanese automobile manufacturers such as Nissan, Toyota, and Honda make money by large productivity. The article reports that many car makers believe that a firm must churn out at least 6 million cars in order to make money. This makes sense, as more production eventually becomes cheaper due to economies of scale.

However, the main purpose of the article was examining how market followers, such as Mazda, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, and Subaru are making a profit without the mass production. Being smaller firms, they do not have the means to compete on volume, as is the norm with the market leaders. To further emphasize their desire for independence, many car markers have thumbed their nose at merging with their larger competitors, instead focusing on exporting their cars to the US, and capitalizing on cheap labor from places such as India. So, through a mixture of tax breaks and the focus on improving efficient consumption of oil, smaller car manufacturers have been able to cling to their independence.

However, there are problems on the horizon. It is apparent that many of the large car manufacturers are focusing on new fuel mediums. This is due primarily to the effect oil pollution has on the environment. Pro-environmental pressures are making noise about continued development of oil-powered cars. In addition to these pressures, government officials add further strain by passing stiff taxes on the purchase of oil. It is known that the development of cleaner fuel will result in more jobs, but it also puts the smaller car manufacturers at a disadvantage.

In this market, it can safely be assumed that the market followers should have merged with the leaders. In this case, productivity is, indeed, an important component. In the current situation, these car manufacturers enjoy freedom from the sway of the big three. However, in the long run, the tax breaks and oil efficiency will be phased out, and once more, productivity will be the primary dominant measurement of success.

However, falling oil prices may stave off environmental watchdogs and provide a saving grace for the smaller companies, allowing them time to transition from oil to another fuel source. Also aiding these smaller companies is Japan’s history of supporting failing businesses. But it is uncertain whether or not this will be enough to prop up the smaller companies, as Japan has just exited a deflationary period, resulting in a weakened currency and a more expensive bailout bill .

Given all of this, what do you think that the followers should do to protect their business? Do you think that gas prices will afford enough protection? Will Japan continue their history of bailing out failing companies now that they have weaker currency?

“Lots of Oomph; Japanese Carmakers.” Economist 25 Oct. 2014: 68. Print.

“Replacing Oil: Alternative Fuels and Technology.” Replacing Oil: Alternative Fuels and Technology. Web. 10 Nov. 2014.

An UberlyFantastic New Business Model

Recently ride-share programs have been all the rage. I myself cannot remember the last time I took a cab. In my opinion these ride-share programs, and I will specifically be speaking on the behalf of Uber as that is the only one I utilize, have massively decreased the amount of money I spend on cabs. On a Friday night, I can get from downtown to Lincoln Park area for about $10-$12 which is far cheaper than the usual $20 with tip I give to cab drivers.

The operations of Uber itself are quite unique and they have been as successful as they have found a way to thrive on the free-market system in the United States, as well as other countries in the world. There has been recent political pressure to shut-down the companies but it looks like those demands will not be fulfilled.

Uber has morphed together the fast smartphone world of today as well as finding a massively over-priced market and have completely changed the world know to cab drivers. We all have had experiences were you sit in a cab feeling uncomfortable as they make no effort to talk to you, are on their phone talking the entire time, and the inside of the car is beat up. Uber has change that by operating a unique manner few have tried to do. The operations of Uber itself have always impressed me as they literally have a network of hundreds of thousands of driver and they have penetrated the global markets as well.

I will always take Uber now over taking a cab, except for one instance. Surge pricing has always confused me and at times will annoy me to no end. Last season my friend and I attended a Blackhawks game and we took an Uber. Since it was snowing there was a surge pricing in effect; however, we failed to look to see the multiplier of the surcharge. Our ride ended up costing us about $60. At the time Uber was not super transparent about surge pricing but since then they have made it clear to the consumer by making sure to have the consumer actually accept the surcharge before the car is ordered.

Another thought is if Uber’s growth will sustain itself, or will there eventually be too many drivers for too little of consumers? This in my opinion directly relates itself to our class in Week 4 where we were discussing forecasting. With a new company such as Uber being in a newly created market space it is hard to look to comparables. Using forecasting techniques such as weighted average will be useless as the amount of high growth will through of the long term sustainability Uber is looking to achieve. Other techniques such as Exponential Smoothing and Trend Projection will be useless as there is not enough years to look to when performing research. It will be interesting to see in the upcoming years if Uber avoids the over forecasting pitfall so many new companies do and continue to transform the car industry as we know it today.

Uber-Taxi-NYC2-1024x615

How would you go about and forecast Uber’s growth?
Have you ever used a ride share program? If not, what would your reason be?
Have you found the ride-share programs to be dramatically cheaper than cabs?
What is your opinion about surge pricing? Is it a necessity for Uber to efficiently maximize profits or will it ends up hurting the company by turning away consumers?

Sources

http://consumerist.com/2014/09/18/how-do-uber-and-lyft-work-and-why-should-i-even-care/
https://www.uber.com/cities
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/01/upshot/uber-improves-life-economists-agree.html?ref=technology&abt=0002&abg=1